First, the AQ I laid down. There were a few contributing factors at this point in the tournament.
1. Four-handed, I felt like I could out play them for the victory.
2. At the cutoff, there was one pretty short stack ($1345 @ 100/200 blinds) and I wanted to make the money first since mere victories are not all I'm aiming for with these SNGs.
3. That guy was SUUUUUUPER tight and sometimes, you just get that feeling. I thought AA KK or AK for sure.
4. I have X-ray vision. Looking back at it, it should have been a really tough lay down or I should have called. But in the moment, I felt it and just folded.
Today:
I played 3 different $11+1 SNGs on Fulltilt today.
9th place, 3rd place, and 1st place.
More importantly though, I raped a $5 home game at Bern's place. It ended up just being me, Alan, and Andy Kang at the end. And it was never all that close. I miss these things. =)
end FT Roll: $336.48
It seems like my roll isn't really moving anywhere, but I should have more time to focus when I get back to Taunton.
P.S. I own Alan so bad. It's not even funny.
GG Alan =)
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5 comments:
hey kev,
thanks for explaining. given your read of the UTG raiser being super tight, i think u made a good laydown.
however, i disagree with you and kenny's analysis about smooth calling the raise against a normal TAG player in this situation. here's why:
1. if you call, you will be playing out of position for a big portion of your stack (~20%). a good player will take this pot away from you a lot of the time.
2. given the range of hands i had before (77+, A9+, and any 2 face cards, which i feel is a conservative estimate) AQ has 55% equity. by smooth calling, you lose value by not pushing the advantage when u are ahead. furthermore, this raise comes from the chip leader while on the $ bubble. in this spot, ppl with chips usually raise more liberally in order to take advantage of passive play by ppl trying to move up in money.
3. by smooth calling u lose all fold equity. if u raised UTG and then the only guy who could cripple you moved all in, would you call with 77 - JJ, what about AK? by moving in, you put pressure on HIM to make a decision for all his chips. i think in that spot, most ppl would fold smaller pairs in order to knock out the little stack first. this is the result u want.
ok, sorry that was so long. bottom line: in this situaion i feel raising > folding >>> calling.
however, i don't play sng's. i've heard that the best sng strategy is to try and cash at all costs instead of going for 1st. if this is your strategy, then i think that folding, which is the lesser variance play, is the best option. thus, folding > raising >>> calling. either way, i think calling is the 3rd best option by far.
ok, disuss.
wen great points...
here's where my strategy differs...
obviously first of all kevin had the most information on that guy from watching him play the whole tournament...given the fact he thought it was a tight player, he had a correct read...
i would also say there is no 100% right way to play that hand, because every situation differs ie. the tightness of the raiser, chip stack sizes, position, etc.
here's why i say calling is the best option for me and raising all in might be the worst...i didn't read over the hand in great detail when i first made the comment, thus i ignored position...but with the AQ and 4 people left, this is why I think you play safer...if there was only 3 people I push all in...
AQ vs any other hand, is rarely a huge favorite...against any small pocket pair you're racing, against AK you're dominated, and even against any random two cards you're only 60/40... by pushing all in on top of the raiser, I think he's going to call the majority of the time...
i ask then why then put your whole tournament at risk with a coin flip...at least by calling you know you can push with an ace, queen, or monster flop...if you miss, you still have $3,200 in chips and still sit in 2nd place...55% equity is not enough to risk finishing in 4th
lastly, in this situation i think position is not that important if you have the mentality of pushing if you hit, and folding if you miss. if i miss and check, i give the raiser the benefit of the doubt of raising and taking the pot down even if he's bluffing, again you're only risking $700 in chips.
if the other two shorter stacks raised, i push all in...however against the big stack, i'd call or fold...
ahahaha i was getting so tired!
that was fun though
kev i made a blog lol
hey kenny, i agree with some of your points. first, sometimes on the bubble it is better to take lesser ev situations in order to ensure a cash if the money means something to you. everyone needs to decide their threshold and make their own decision. if this is what kevin wanted, then i wholeheartedly agree with the fold. to be honest, i'm still not sure what optimal sng strategy (i never play them) in terms of cashing vs playing for first is, so you may very well be correct. however, from a purely ev standpoint, i think pushing is definitely the better play than calling. here's why:
1. i don't think that utg is definitely calling. given the range i defined earlier there are many many hands he would fold. two paint and a-rag for sure.
2. the beauty of AQ in this situation is that there are only 4 hands you absolute fear (AA, KK, QQ and AK). if he has any other pair, you don't mind a call since u are even money. and u dominate every other holding except KJ (which u are still beating). by pushing, you aren't the one putting your tournament at risk. HE IS. if u are the chip leader with 5k and now 2nd in chips pushes for 4k, what are you gonna do with 99 or TT on the $ bubble? personally, i would (and have before) folded when i knew it would be a coin flip. but the great thing is that you are not the one making the decision. HE IS. HE has to decide if he wants to risk HIS tournament on a coinflip, not you. that's the whole point of fold equity. he will fold some pairs (which is a great result)
3. i think playing out of position is more important than you give it credit for. you're not gonna hit this flop most of the time. when u don't, u give him a free shot to take the pot. what will you do if the flop comes 8 high. now he bets with AJ and wins. what happens if the flop comes KQx. he bets. and now what? again, the decision is on you. as a side question, what would u do with AK here? what would u do with 99 here? it sounds like you are folding all these hands to try and squeak into the money because ur avoiding a coinflip. this kind of play gets expoited by aggressive players on the bubble.
4. finally, i've only played a few turbo sngs but from what i remember the blinds go up EXTREMELY fast. its hard to outplay your opponents when everyone has 10bb. the chips u lose by calling in this situation will be that much more important down the line. and i disagree about 700 not being a lot of chips. its almost 20% of your stack and u can't give that away.
ok so like i said. if i didn't want to take the coinflip. i think folding is fine. mathematically, u are giving up ev but have a better (this is debatable) chance to get into the money. however, i still believe raising >> calling.
finally, some of the points in this hand are similar to a sorta infamous hand played by joe sebok vs isaac haxton and was discussed at length on 2+2. it describes why u need a much stronger hand to call a raise with then to actually raise and talks about the math behind raising. if u you have time, check it out.
wen i agree with pretty much your whole post except if its 4 handed against the chip leader...in almost any other situation during the sit n go, i lean towards your points, but its a special and different situation at that point...at least for me
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